VARIANTS OF FORECASTS OF STEEL PRODUCTION SIZE FOR POLAND

1 GAJDZIK Bożena
Institution:
1 Silesian University of Technology, Gliwice, Poland, EU, bozena.gajdzik@polsl.pl
Conference:
27th International Conference on Metallurgy and Materials, Hotel Voronez I, Brno, Czech Republic, EU, May 23rd - 25th 2018
Proceedings:
Proceedings 27th International Conference on Metallurgy and Materials
Pages:
114-121
ISBN:
978-80-87294-84-0
ISSN:
2694-9296
Published:
24th October 2018
Proceedings of the conference were published in Web of Science and Scopus.
Metrics:
57 views / 33 downloads
Abstract

In the paper the author presented forecasts of steel production size for Poland. The forecasting methodology proposed by the author was two-pronged. Step I consisted in building separate forecasts of total steel production and steel production in the converter process (BOF) and steel production in the electrical process (EAF). Step II uses the principle of differences according to which the total steel production minus steel production produced in oxygen converters is the production of steel produced in electric arc furnaces and vice versa the total steel production minus steel production generated in arc furnaces is the steel production in converters (both productions constitute combined production in the steel sector). Step II consisted of the variant A, which built the forecast for steel production in converters (BOF) and estimated forecasts for the production of steel produced in electric arc furnaces (EAF) and variant B involving the construction of forecasts for the production of steel produced technology EAF and assessing the prospects for production of steel produced by BOF technology. The forecasting methodology adopted by the author is innovative, and its application enables multi-variant forecasting, while meeting the assumption that the total production is carried out using two key production technologies, the partial outputs of which account for 100 %. Forecasts were built using econometric models on the basis of empirical data for time period: 2000-2015. The author made forecasts of steel production by 2020.

Keywords: forecasts, steel production, BOF - Basic Oxygen Furnace, EAF − Electric Arc Furnace
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