DEMAND FORECASTING OF OVER-PROMOTED FMCG PRODUCTS IN A MANUFACTURING COMPANY

1 PATAK Michal
Co-authors:
1 PECINOVA Zuzana 1 BRANSKA Lenka
Institution:
1 University of Pardubice, Pardubice, Czech Republic, EU
Conference:
7th Carpathian Logistics Congress, ALEXANDRA WELLNESS HOTEL, Liptovsky Jan, Slovakia, EU, June 28th - 30th 2017
Proceedings:
Proceedings 7th Carpathian Logistics Congress
Pages:
40-46
ISBN:
978-80-87294-74-1
ISSN:
2694-9318
Published:
30th November 2017
Proceedings of the conference were published in Web of Science.
Metrics:
457 views / 473 downloads
Abstract

Overuse of trade sales promotion to keep fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) in the range of retail stores results in a lot of negative impacts on all members of the supply chain network. One of the consequences is also an extreme increase in demand variability for FMCG manufacturers. However, such demand becomes unpredictable if only common forecasting methods are applied. This paper aims to find ways of forecasting the demand that is affected by frequent implementation of promotional events. Based on the case study conducted with a large Czech manufacturer of FMCG products, the paper first discusses the possibilities and barriers of the current theoretical approaches to demand forecasting of promoted products, which subsequently results in a proposal of a statistical forecasting method for over-promoted products. The proposed approach to demand forecasting combines a multiple linear regression (MLR) model with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. By its application in the company involved in the research, they were able to decrease the simple statistical forecast error by 24%.

Keywords: autoregressive integrated moving average, demand forecasting, fast-moving consumer goods, multiple linear regression, promotion

© This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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