FORECASTING TRAFFIC FLOW AT THE INTERSECTION BASED ON CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS

1 GRZESICA Dariusz
Institution:
1 Krakow University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Krakow, Poland
Conference:
Carpathian Logistics Congress, Hotel Tatra, Zakopane, Poland, EU, November 28th - 30th 2016
Proceedings:
Proceedings Carpathian Logistics Congress
Pages:
143-149
ISBN:
978-80-87294-76-5
ISSN:
2694-9318
Published:
30th October 2017
Proceedings of the conference were published in Web of Science.
Metrics:
405 views / 118 downloads
Abstract

Forecasting future volume of traffic at the intersection may lead to increase the drivers safety on city roads. The possibility of realization forecasting methods for the transportation system is an important element of traffic management in the city. In the article the forecast for future periods on the basis of cyclical fluctuations in the traffic flow using the method of harmonic analysis will be calculated. The forecast data obtained from the intersection of the Słowackiego and Łobzowska street were registered with an interval of time during one week. Cyclical fluctuations are typical for the period exceeding one year. The article aims to prove the application of harmonic analysis for hourly periods in forecasting traffic flow at the intersection. The forecast is confirmed using mean absolute percentage error for long-time periods.

Keywords: forecasting traffic flow, cyclical fluctuations, spectral analysis

© This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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